HYPOTHESIS 1 - Southern hemispheric variations

If the eccentric orbit of the earth around the sun is the cause of Seasonal Affective Disorder rather than the varying amount of sunlight per day, then the yearly cycle of SAD in the southern hemisphere should be affected by the calendar month of the year rather than the shortest day of the year. Remember, the shortest day of the year in the southern hemisphere is on June 21st, a date that is fairly near the aphelion. This would explain the great deal of conflicting data regarding the efficacy of Light Therapy, the standard treatment.

However this is a somewhat anti-intuitive treatment since SAD peaks in February and March when the Darkest Day is all the way back in December.  

The current SAD theory has it that the hormonal balance regulated by the pineal gland causes disruptions in the normal circadian rhythms.  Light therapy is thought to address this daylight deficit by supplementing artificial bright light which stimulates the production of melatonin. However numerous studies now contradict this premise.  

The model I propose is more straightforward.  It predicts a rising energy toward crescendo peaking around January 4th, followed by a rapid shifting of energy until springtime.

The current model insists that the seasonal shift in mood and health is primarily due to the length of daylight and the angle of the sun in the sky.  

If this were true then winter-time depression would increase with higher latitudes.  It does not.  Also the winter depression rates in the Southern Hemisphere would mirror those of the North.  They do not.  They seem to conform to another (here-to-fore unexplained) seasonal pattern.


Jan. 24 worst day of year, says professor

Last Updated: Friday, January 21, 2005 | 7:01 PM ET   CBC News

Jan. 24 is the worst day of the year, with bad weather, debt, fading Christmas memories, failed resolutions and a lack of motivation combining to depress people.
This is the contention of Cliff Arnalls, a part-time university tutor in Wales.

The Cardiff university instructor has come up with a formula to measure the winter-time blues, the BBC reported.

According to Dr. Arnalls' equation, 1/8W+(D-d) 3/8xTQ MxNA, misery peaks next Monday, Jan. 24, a month after Christmas.

JANUARY BLUES DAY FORMULA 
1/8W+(D-d) 3/8xTQ MxNA.

Where: W: Weather D: Debt d: Money due in January pay T: Time since Christmas Q: Time since failed quit attempt M: General motivational levels NA: The need to take action

Arnalls calculated the effects of cold, wet – in the case of Britain – and dark January weather after the cosiness of Christmas coupled with extra spending in the sales.
Any energy from the holidays had worn off by the third week of January, he said.

By Monday, most people will have fallen off the wagon or abandoned the nicotine patches as they fail to keep New Year's resolutions.

That compounded a sense of failure and knocked confidence needed to get through January.

The fact that the most depressing day fell on a Monday was not planned but a coincidence, Arnalls said.